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Exploring models which describe changes in birth and death rates as countries go through five stages of development. How does development impact population age and rate of change?Key facts
- The Demographic Transition Model describes the five stages of development industrial countries undergo, and how these impact their demographic.
- Stage 1: total population is low, but stable. Stage 2: Improving food supply reduces death rate, resulting in a population rise.
- Stage 3: the population is still rising, but the birth rate falls as women pursue education and careers.
- Stage 4: the population is high, but stable with low birth and death rates. Stage 5: if fertility falls to a low enough level, the population will be high, but will begin to decline.
Transcript
The world's population is increasing by two people every second.
But global population was once stable.
As countries have developed, birth and death rates have changed dramatically.
The changes can be explained by the Demographic Transition Model, which describes the five stages of development of industrialised countries and how these impact a country's demographics.
In Stage 1, total population is low, but balanced because of both high birth and death rates.
Death rates are high because of disease and food shortages; with infant mortality high, there is no incentive to control fertility.
This was the situation across the world, until western countries became industrialised towards the end of the 18th century.
Only a few nomadic or indigenous populations remain in Stage 1.
In Stage 2, population rises as death rates fall, while birth rates remain high.
Improvements in food supply, clean water supplies, and sewerage systems mean fewer people die.
Because infant mortality has dropped, populations become younger.
In Stage 3, the population is still rising, but birth rate falls to meet the declining death rate.
Parents are confident their offspring will survive, while urban living means children are expensive to raise.
With contraception becoming available, and women able to pursue education and careers, parents choose to have fewer children.
By Stage 4, the population is high but stabilised, with low birth and death rates.
Birth control is widely available and there is a desire for smaller families.
If fertility falls to a low enough level, the country enters Stage 5, where population is high, but declining as people choose to have children later in life.
This creates an ageing population.
Countries around the world are in different stages of this Eurocentric model.
But some less economically developed countries appear to be skipping stages entirely.
Importantly, this model doesn't tell us what happens beyond Stage 5, which some countries have already reached.
